If productivity grows as expected, the exchange rate deviation could fall from the level of 2.7 in 2001 to 2.0 at the end of 2008, which would be a considerable improvement compared with its stagnation, or rather increase, in the last decade. The comparative price level could become substantially closer to the EU average, from current 36% to around 46% in 2006 and 49.7% in 2008. This convergence should be mainly the result of increased domestic prices, but thanks to the rise in productivity, also the slight appreciation of the exchange rate. Wages should increase together with the rise in comparative price level, which should mean an apparent shift from the low wages model, which provides little support for technology modernisation and product innovation, to the higher wages - higher quality model. At the same time, this should ensure that the transition to the expected faster rise in prices will be carried out while the population's living standard and real wages will be rising (average annual rise of 2.7% is expected in 2004-2006).
Slovakia's integration to the EU could have a further positive effect on the rise in comparative price level and rise in productivity in that the phenomenon of price discounts provided to EU buyers for the so-called goods imported from the east could be reduced or gradually fully eliminated. The problem of eliminating differences in price levels is concentrated on the area of tradable goods. Within this area, it mostly concerns foodstuffs, clothing and shoes, and household equipment. However, as regards the convergence of the overall price level to that in the EU, due to price deregulations we must expected further, gradual rises in prices for those goods and services that are still cheaper than in the EU (fuel, energy, rent, healthcare, education, culture, etc.). From the consumer's standpoint, the prices of foodstuffs are of a decisive importance. The majority of compared consumer prices of foodstuffs in Slovakia are in the interval of 50-80% of the level in Germany. Certain types of foodstuffs (e.g. bread, potatoes) are substantially cheaper (20-30% of German prices), while other types (certain dairy products, vegetable oils) have already exceeded consumer prices in Germany. According to model calculations, by the time of accession consumer prices of foodstuffs should increase by a further 6% (annual average), right after accession in 2004 they could increase by a further 8% and in 2005 and 2006 by 8.9%. The average annual rise in these prices should decrease to around 6.8% by 2008.
The rise in these prices after accession should not, however, create downward pressure on the population's living standard, since, with the expected growth in productivity, nominal wages per employee should simultaneously rise by 9.6% in 2004-2006. As for the sectoral structure of economy, although the effect of Slovakia's integration into the EU in the period before 2008 should be reflected in increased value added based on a further increase in the primary sector's productivity, it will also result in a decrease in its share in the Slovak economy's total value added. On the other hand, the secondary sector's overall share in the total value added could rise, especially due to a substantial increase in value added from gross production based on the high effectiveness of investments. This applies above all to the manufacturing. The rise in the secondary sector's share should leave the share of the service sector basically unchanged, even though the rate of value added and labour productivity might substantially increase here.
Sectors such as manufacture of machinery, electrical and transport equipment, as well as the manufacture of chemical and pulp-paper products should gain greater importance in the structure of the manufacturing. Rubber industry, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and the food industry will probably retain their current share. The share of metal, textile, clothing, and leather production, and simple wood processing in the total value added will probably decrease (even though it will continue to grow in absolute terms). These estimated trends could provide a certain idea and simultaneously be a challenge for the enterprise sector, where a considerable level of healthy emotional attitude should be manifested. We also used the CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model to estimate the impacts of integration on the developments in the sectorally divided structure of economy. According to this model calculation, it appears that in domestic production the greatest rise in production will be achieved by the manufacturing (excluding chemical and food industry). Agricultural and food production and market services will also rise, although less significantly. The volume of the production of chemical raw materials and products, and construction production will remain unchanged after accession to the EU. A certain decrease will probably occur in the production of non-market services and in electricity, gas and hot water supply. According to the above methodology, Slovakia's foreign trade with the EU should increase due to deepening of production specialisation and co-operation and as a result of the economy's higher competitiveness.
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